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Thursday, April 27, 2006

The trade down scenario

OK, here's the math lesson for today: The Dolphins have six draft picks with three of those coming in the seventh round. The Dolphins also have needs at WR, OLB, RB, S, DT and possibly CB.

You have seven picks and seven significant needs. The math simply does not favor the Dolphins hitting on every pick to fill all the needs.

The answer? Get more picks OR have fewer needs.

Having fewer needs is out of the question right now, and in fact, that list increased two days ago when Ricky Williams lost his appeal and will serve a minimum one-year suspension for violating the league's substance abuse policy.

So the Dolphins must get more picks and the only way to do that Saturday and Sunday is to trade down. Already the team has been involved in conversations feeling out other teams about trade-down scenarios (see my story in Thursday's Miami Herald) so the potential is there.

Unfortunately, Miami needs trade partners that are casting lustful eyes at particular players for those trades to happen while the team is on the clock.

That being the case, Dolphins fans should pray Jay Cutler sinks like lead Saturday because he is probably the most valuable commodity that could be available when Miami picks and there will be teams behind the Dolphins vying to trade up and get him.

If Cutler goes before the No. 16 pick (which I personally believe he will), Miami's chances of getting a trade-down scenario with teams like the Jets, Carolina and Chicago still exist, but are not quite as clear cut.

If the Dolphins luck out and find a victim, I mean a trade partner, you can expect them to get at least a fourth-round selection out of any move, and as high as a second round pick if their retreat is to the end of the first round.

So here's your homework: Tell me what players of value (other than Cutler) may still be available when Miami picks and match those players to a team behind Miami -- likely one with multiple picks in some later round -- that has a desperate need for that spot or player.

I'll check back throughout the day Thursday and tell you what the trade value chart says Miami can expect in return for the possible exchange.

You're on the clock!

20 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Although the Giants (or really any other team at the bottom of the first round) do not have multiple picks in the 2nd, 3rd, or 4th round, the possibility exists that they may target one of the top receivers in the draft. The DB, RB, and LB position are all pretty deep but the top WR talent is not.

6:25 AM  
Blogger Dolfan_Ray said...

I think if Santonio Holmes is still on the board at 16, there will be teams (Pitt, NYG, NYJ, Sea) willing to move up to get the #1 rated receiver in the draft. If the asking price isn't right, then take Holmes and use him as a complimentary weapon to Chambers.

7:26 AM  
Blogger osito said...

Jack and Pitt may want to try to out do each other to get one of the remaining RB's, especially if either (or both) Minn and Denver have taken a RB.

8:54 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

The Pats and Ravens are in need of LB, and Chad Greenway or Ernie Sims should be available at 16. Both teams have some extra picks. (How can this be fair that the Pats have extra picks?!?). Since the Dolphins have so many needs, they could just take the best player on the board where they end up. I agree with you about trading down if possible.

10:36 AM  
Anonymous Steve said...

I think another guy who will benefit the Fish if he's still there is Ernie Sims. I think most people assume the Vikings will take him if he's there so being right in front of them gives them some opportunities to slide down a few spots and pick up another pick or two in the process.

10:40 AM  
Anonymous Steve said...

I don't like Sims for the Fish as much as for trade bait. Just read the previous comment to mine so responding.

10:42 AM  
Anonymous Steve said...

One more thing, there are always RBs that slide in a draft for one reason or another. I'd just wait til day 2 and then see who's still available at that position. Plus hey i think James Jackson is available!! - i'm kinda serious on that, still think he can be a good back up.

10:44 AM  
Blogger Chris said...

The two top receivers, Jackson and Holmes, would be of the most value at #16 together with OT Winston Justice...presuming of course that Cutler is not on the board.

Simple supply and demand.

BTW, Saban would pretty much be able to name his price for any team wanting to jump to #16 for Cutler. When it is a highly rated QB talent, you have to add a premium to the value chart.

12:35 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

The best chance for the dolphins to get extra picks is to trade with a team who wants the same player as the Vikings. The Vikings would want Cutler, or a RB.... Cutler would actually bring us the most value with a trade, while a RB can get us a pick, with Cutler, we could pretty much rob someone of picks. I don't see the Jets giving up too many picks since they have a new coach, and New England doesn't trade much.... Our best bet would be Carolina or Pittsburg if you ask me, yet then again, they prefer Lendale White, which Minnesota doesn't want...

1:33 PM  
Anonymous jRock said...

I know the Texans are quite busy with Reggie Bush at the #1 spot. But they have another FIVE picks still to go in the top 150... #1 in Rd2, #1 & #2 in Rd3, #1 in Rd4 & #1 in Rd5

Check the math... but I think our round 1 pick equals is worth some combination of three of those Texans picks.

At #16 the Texans can get a big OL to block for Reggie or a big play WR to play across from Andre Johnson, both would be instant startes & game changers for them.

While the Fins would get three solid picks & be able to add the depth they need. Saban's recent college recruiting experiece gives him great insight on lots of players deep in the draft, but that will only last for another year or two. So we need to take advantage of that knowledge now!!!

2:21 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Is there any chance the Fish use the pick to trade with GB and get Javon Walker -- a proven Pro Bowler with in-state ties?

2:24 PM  
Anonymous Steve said...

no way the Fish trade that 1st round pick for a WR coming off a major injury - pro bowler or not. a later pick or some type of conditional pick, maybe tho.

2:58 PM  
Blogger Diggs said...

I'm not sure about the value of picks strictly fromn the value chart, but the colts,jags,and panthers are prime for trades with the top tier of rb's only about 4 deep. we could get a 3rd round pick or possibly a 2nd. Polian has not been afraid to move if they can get their guy. we could pick up wr moss, de lawson, lb ryans, s allen, or cb youboty

3:06 PM  
Blogger The Dude said...

I agree with Diggs. If Cutler is gone by 16 -- and I think he will be -- then the Colts are the next logical trading partner. They need a RB worse than we do and the 16th pick would be enticing to them, especially if some one like DeAngelo Williams is still there. That might be our only option to get multiple picks.

Still, no matter what we do, I trust Saban will do the best thing for the team -- whether it's take the best player at 16 or trade for more picks.

3:38 PM  
Blogger CubanCulebra said...

I figured the Colts aswell but they only have 6 picks in this years draft so a trade up doesn't seem plausible for them. I do love the idea of the Jets trading their 29th to us but I wouldn't take anything lower than their 2nd rounder, 35th overall. I don't care what the value chart saids. We could take Bobby Carpenter at 29, a heck of a OLB plus rusher for the 3/4, and Gabe Watson at 35, a 340 pound run stuffer for the 3/4. A WR in the 3rd (Devin Aromashodu runs a 4.35 at 6'2), a S in the 4th, a RB/OL with our sevens, then go throw that LaVar money and then some at TY LAW!!!

4:55 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hey armando, I like the objective opinion pieces you are writing for your blog a lot! Keep up the good work!

7:37 PM  
Anonymous OzFraud said...

Laurence Maroney (5'11", 217, 4.47)if he's still available

Manny Lawson DE (6'5" 241)
Lee Vickers DE (6'5" 268)
Stephen Bowen DE (6'4" 275)
cuz our DE's are getting old and
Darnell Bing S (6'2" 227)

7:39 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Is Dan Moreno still playing for you guys?

7:37 PM  
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