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Sunday, December 10, 2006

Sometimes you just have to be lucky

I am sitting here, watching the New Orleans Saints put on an offensive football clinic against a pretty good Dallas defense.

And I know what you're thinking, so, let me say this is not a rant on how the Dolphins blew it on Drew Brees last spring -- even though they did.

It is a post about fate and how funky it can be.

I am watching Reggie Bush blow past the Cowboys defense with six catches (so far) for 125 yards and thinking this guy was the No. 2 overall pick in the draft this year.

Last year the Dolphins had the No. 2 pick in the draft and got Ronnie Brown. Brown is a good back and may become a very good back someday. But he's not explosive like Bush. And that reminds of something Wayne Huizenga told me this week.

"We picked a bad year to be bad," he told me this week. "We got a high pick in a year there wasn't a lot of talent in the draft."

True. This year Ronnie Brown is maybe a top 10 pick. But not No. 2. So the Saints got lucky, not only in that Bush fell from No. 1 overall, but also in that he was in this draft at all. The Dolphins, similarly, were unlucky that they had such a high pick in a year there was no dominant player like a Bush or Julius Peppers (another No. 2 overall) to be had.

Then, here it comes, there is the Brees thing. He has just thrown his fifth TD of the game. Daunte Culpepper didn't have five touchdowns this entire season. And I'm telling you it was simply hard luck the Dolphins picked Culpepper over Brees this offseason.

The decision to pick Culpepper over Brees seemed logical at the time. I certainly didn't hate it when it was initially made because any right-thinking person would agree you take a QB with a bad knee over one with a bad arm just about every time.

So it was fate that Culpepper is still hurt and Brees hasn't tweaked his surgically repaired throwing shoulder at all.

It was fate that has the Saints looking like a playoff team while the Dolphins enjoy no such postseason possibility.

Yup, sometimes it is great to be good. And sometimes it also pays to be lucky.

30 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

hind sight is 20-20 aND YOU could drive yourself crazy thinking like that,it is what it ends up.
how many times have lotto # been one # off and you say to your self I was going to pick that #.It is what it is.
YOU still can win without highly reconizable names(the know name defence etc.)
It's about a bunch of guys playing as one, not one playing for the many,joey harrington for example in detroit.

7:27 AM  
Anonymous bill cale said...

Yeah, I'd rather be lucky than good. I can't think of a single Super Bowl team that I thought didn't get "the calls" or "the breaks." Still... don't the players and coaches have something to do with it?

For instance, Reggie isn't making the difference as a running back - for which he was drafted - but as a receiver. If the Saints used him strictly as a running back, pounding into the line, how effective would he be? The Saints' offense confounds the opposing defense because Reggie is a threat as a receiver with a big ability for yards after the catch. This gives the Saints an added dimension to their offense.

Ronnie Brown was drafted as a running back with an added plus of having gifted hands. Yet the Dolphins use him overwhelmingly to pound into the line to try and establish a conventional running game that neither he nor the offensive line is capable of mustering or sustaining. As a power running back, Brown grades out as average or less than. But so does Reggie. I wonder what would happen if the Dolphins developed an offense to use Ronnie Brown like the Saints use Reggie? Right now it looks like "bad luck of the draw." But are the Dolphins placing themselves in position to have some luck?

7:49 AM  
Blogger NYdolfan84 said...

Good Post...It definitely is better to be luck than good. The Ronnie Brown draft year was a weak one for early first round picks. I still feel Ronnie can be a Pro-Bowl back. We just need to open some holes for him. The offensive line has been much better and hopefully with a little tweaking they can play well all of next year. I know one thing, Joey can't be the starter full-time. He has been a very valuable back-up, but he misses way too many throws. New England shouldn't have even been that close to us, the way the Defense played. We left points on the table for sure. On the other hand I was very pleased that we didn't turn it over. I guess that is the give and take with an average QB. I'm very anxious to see how we address the o-line and QB positions in the offseason.

8:48 AM  
Blogger Brett Nelson said...

recent blog - saban want's to win too badly...this post, just being lucky. i think you've drawn me into the sensationalisim that helps to get people to blog. This is a 180 from the last one.....perhaps we're just happy from the patriots win to consider the idea we're just unlucky.

how will saban be remembered? how will armando be remembered? I will stay consistent and say that luck is certainly a factor. 2005 draft was lame. utlimately, i'm a believe in saban, and i guess that will undermine all my responses on these blogs.

11:22 AM  
Anonymous Joseph said...

Armando,

Your point is well taken. In last year's draft, there were a lot more guys who would have helped the Dolphins more than in the 2005 draft. If you had to do it over again I am not sure anything would change. But the 2006 draft had a handful of guys that would have been more helpful. How good would D'Brick look at LT and Vince Young would have been amazing for the Dolphins. The 2004 draft had Eli, Rivers, and others that would have really helped. As our owner said, we were bad at the wrong time.

12:03 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

very good points Armando. Although, on the other hand, we did get Saban (lot of teams would want him) we did get Harrington, we did get...That's pretty much all I can think of right now. Wow, we need some breaks.

12:05 PM  
Anonymous Hank in the 400 said...

Luck is a funny thing. I agree with you Bill Cale it seems like the breaks alwys go toward the winning team. When you win people tell you had all the luck and when you lose the same people say you have to create your own luck. The players and coaches have to put themself in a position to be lucky and then they have to take advantage of that luck. Yesterday Donnie Jones put 3 punts inside the 10...lucky or good depends on who you ask. The important part that goes with that is that defense followed up on that by not allowing a drive so we had the "luck" of good field position all day.

As for big names, teams can't stock pile big names on one team because of free agency and the limit on franchising so all teams can have 3-4 name players and how big that name is depends on what position they play.

You have to utilize what you have at the time because what it is... is what it is. We need Ronnie to pound the rock and we need someone for change of pace like Sammy who has really pushed his game up for the past couple of weeks. Even JT isn't the same player if his teamates don't do their thing right and allow him to do his thing the way he does. It isn't his size but his speed and intelect that makes him JT.

We saw yesterday that even the fair haired child can't win if his teamates don't do their part.

I think Saban knows more than most of these bloggers think he does so lets watch how he manages the end of the season and the off season.

If Daunte reads this I hope he bases his readiness for competition on reality not just his desire to be on the field and lets hope for a QB controversy next season

3:55 PM  
Anonymous Jon said...

I just want the two Doctors who told Saban not to sign him fired, Like Donald Trump style. I mean, everyone says Saban blew it, but if 2 doctors told you not to sign someone, would you? I think Culpepper will be a good qb for the Dolphins for years to come, but getting Brees and having him this year, not to mention giving up a 2nd rounder hurts. Just another reasons to hate doctors.

7:59 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Luck,some of you out there think that being lucky is better than being good?
Luck just doesn't happen, it happens to those who put themselves in position to be lucky.you can't win the lottery unless you play and put yourself in position to win.
If you try to make yourself lucky ,that never turns out as planned.If we decided to lose games just because a certain player was in the draft,would end up in desaster.
THINGS ARE WHAT THEY ARE AND NO LUCK WILL HELP UNLESS LUCK WAS MENT FOR YOU.

7:30 AM  
Blogger Chris said...

No one would argue that, knowing what we know now, that Saban would sign Brees. Then again, there's still time for the Culpepper signing to work out. When Culpepper's right, there's no denying he's a superior talent.

As for Ronnie Brown, the Dolphins made the best pick they could with what was available. Perhaps they might have even taken Shawne Merriman, knowing what we know now.

Huizenga's take on it is right down the middle. There aren't very many guys in that first round that are arguably making as much of an impact as Brown. (Cadillac, Merriman, Castillo, Clayton, maybe Edwards...).

8:58 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hey Armando,

Real insightful stuff here, you are bringing such a unique perspective to the Dolphins situation, I have never heard any of this before. Question though, did you come up with this all by yourself, or did you just cut n paste the same babble you have been saying over and over and over again? Or, did you have a team of monkeys write this up for you?

Well Done Shakespeare!

11:03 AM  
Blogger Bloodlust said...

I have said my views on Brees many times. It is too late to change things, What we should have done, and what we did we now must live with.

I blame most of these blunders on the general manager, head coach, and scouts for not making the proper choices. This includes the doctors on Miami's staff that did not see the problems in Culpepper's knee. Culpepper and his doctors were saying at the bedinning of the season that he was ready, and completely healed. We fell for it, Now he is being paid while going through rehab, and the team we took him from is most likely laughing their butts off for being stupid enough to take him. We took their rotten apple, opened a spot for someone on their team, while he sits here useless as a non-contributor.

Saban and all involved in this back fire need to learn from this screw up. We have talent here, and if the guys on first string are too emotionally drained to play, give the others a chance to prove themselves. I mean, what are they being paid for? Just to sit on the bench while only a few select guys play continuously? Anyone of these players should be capable of getting on that field and play professional football, and that is why they are there. Not for looks, cheering, or just to look good, but be an active and contributing member of the team.

This is where I have problems in the word depth. We have no depth if the guys on the bench are not good enough to use on the field. This is why NE is they way they are. Anyone on that bench can walk into the game and play almost equal to the player he replaced. Knowing the strengths of all on the roster provides other opportunities to change offensive and defensive schemes by utilizing each players talents.

On one of the last blogs someone brought up Cleo Lemon, and I agree on why is he not being given a chance. In preseason he moved the ball more precisely, and continuously than Culpepper or Harrington. If he is more in tune with our offense he should be out there. At least offer him a chance. Otherwise what is he sitting on the team for. If we have players struggling we should have the depth to move someone else in that position who can fill the need. You can have your main people of your choice on the field most the time, but that is where they learn your "go to" men. They then adjust their plays to inhibit these men from carrying out their job. Having individuals to switch too offers hardships to the opposing defense to counter our offense or scheme because they do not know how to play them.

If we are carrying a bunch of dead weight, we need to rid ourselves of them and get people we can utilize. Right now we should start playing some of these men to evaluate whether or not we need to keep or release them. This will open up spots for other individuals and possibly allow us to increase what we have to spend in our cap in the following year.

1:34 PM  
Blogger Bloodlust said...

This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

1:56 PM  
Blogger Bloodlust said...

I forgot... I want to thank the whole team for an excellent game this Sunday. Any time Brady gets shut down makes my day.

2:01 PM  
Blogger controller said...

As a longtime Vikings fan I am not laughing at Miami for taking Culpepper as bloodlust was wondering about. It seemed like a good gamble at the time. If drafting and evaluating talent was easy, every team would be excelling. Culpepper can be incredibly good if he has a good system to work within and if things are going well. He loses his cool and his confidence quite easily though. If Saban and staff handle him right he may do very well for Miami. I don't think he will ever be a championship caliber quarterback, but there are really very few of those.

10:37 AM  
Blogger controller said...

As a longtime Vikings fan I am not laughing at Miami for taking Culpepper as bloodlust was wondering about. It seemed like a good gamble at the time. If drafting and evaluating talent was easy, every team would be excelling. Culpepper can be incredibly good if he has a good system to work within and if things are going well. He loses his cool and his confidence quite easily though. If Saban and staff handle him right he may do very well for Miami. I don't think he will ever be a championship caliber quarterback, but there are really very few of those.

10:38 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hello Armando, I just wanted to comment on the misdirected rants of Sean Salisbury,whom called the Dolphins cheaters. If anyone is a cheater here it is Salisbury!He cheats ESPN and it's many viewers everytime he is on the air with his always biased opinions. He likewise cheated the Vikings organization and their fans everytime he suited-up and refered to himself as an NFL quarterback!

1:36 PM  
Anonymous The Greg said...

It really bothers me every time I read something that suggests that the fins should have gone for Brees over Pep. Before I go any further, I must say that at the time of the deal, I was in favor in signing Brees over trading for Pep (I stated so on this very blog). My reasons were that I was not confident that Pep would be ready for the season. I work in the field of sports medicine, so I know how bad of an injury he had. BUT I was OK with the Fins decision because a shoulder injury to a QB is like a porn star getting his penis broken (yes, it is a real "injury"). The reason the Fins decided to go ahead with the trade was that Brees was not even throwing the football yet. The trade was made about March 14 (I think) and Brees was not throwing the football until April. Would YOU sign a QB if you didn't know if he could EVER throw a football again? I sure wouldn't. Thats why the doctors suggested that Brees was not the best choice (bloodlust), and I can't blame them. So, please, stop the monday morning quaterbacking.

Now, onto the original post. I agree and have had the same thoughts about our "luck" many times. But hey, that off-season, we got Saban (who is fresh, no matter what any idiot on this blog says - give him a little time please!?!); we got Ronnie who be a stud back for many years to come; and we got Crowder, who is going to take over for Zach and be fresh (how could he not be, he's a GATOR!!! and he wrestles wild hogs in the Georgia woods. Would you f*ck with him? I wouldn't.). I guess we could have gotten luckier, but I'm Ok if our only "luck" is not having Wanny here anymore!

6:31 PM  
Blogger Bloodlust said...

Controller... I understand what you are saying. I may not be in sports medicine, but I have recovered from two spinal cord injuries. I am fused from C-3 to C-7, and I am living a close to normal life. My thing is, Culpepper, his doctors, and the coaching staff should have known. To blatantly lie to get back on the field is bull. I commend him for trying, but it is worth nothing. How can we ever be sure if he will ever come back, if not, what a waste of time and money spent on him. He was picked because he and his physician claimed he was healthy enough to play without restrictions, and we bit. Both Brees and Culpepper had opportunities to show what they had when given the opportunity to come here, so how was this not discovered.

Many QB's suffered torn rotorcups and continued, as well as, others leaving the game because they could not push off their leg due to their knee injury. It goes both ways. Honesty is the question here. Is he ever going to be ready to play? How much time are we going to invest in him. WE were screwed and let by Ricky Williams how many times, is this going to be another Ricky with other problems than drugs. Daunte, the doctors, and the general manager need to re-evaluate the situation.

I honestly have nothing against him other than hiding how bad off he is. I have watched both QB's play, and Bree's played good and hard with a shoulder injury before the torn rotorcup, and that is why I preferred him. He seemes durable, able to deal with the pain of injury, yet perform adequately with it. That is why I liked him in the spot.

Daunte was good because he was able to move in the back field, he wasn't a pocket QB and his injury had made him so. I am partial to the QB who stays within the pocket. Four of my favorite QB's played the pocket, and Marino was one of them.

I appologize to you, controller and anyone I offended by my ragging of Culpepper. I just hate players who cry and bullshit when they are paid millions to play a game. While we struggle, and give our support to them.

As far as luck, I do not want to keep winning on luck. It is nice to have luck on your side, but it is not what always wins games. The human quotient is what causes luck. The line judges and refferies that make errors in their calls, are the luck issue. Either its accidental, or being paid off as some of the guys I know say.

7:41 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

doc oc sez...
I was in favor in signing Brees over trading for Pep (I stated so on this very blog). My reasons were that I was not confident that Pep would be ready for the season. I work in the field of sports medicine, so I know how bad of an injury he had. BUT I was OK with the Fins decision because a shoulder injury to a QB is like a porn star getting his penis broken (yes, it is a real "injury").

you freakin rejects! knees or shoulders are both a 50/50 chance. If you are that trained in sport medicine you would know that. We probably urchased daunte at the dollar store because we are to cheap to pay for a real quarterback. maybe he broke his prick like you mentioned. culpepper is a total wash. He has nothing left or the Vikings wouldn't have let him go. Get rid of the bitch and get someone who can play.......

showboat saban... wake the hell up. fire our shit ass offensive coordinator, and let bums like culpepper and anyone who is afraid of playing hard go in free agency, or just drop their asses.

7:56 PM  
Anonymous The Greg said...

bloodlust-

I can't say I disagree with you, I just wanted to clear up that Brees was not even throwing a football when we made the trade. You can't fault a guy for not paying a QB $10 million, when you don't even know if he can throw a football. Yes, Saban screwed up by letting Pep start too early, but I'm sure he felt that was his best option at the time and even if he wasn't 100%, I'm sure he figured he could play his way out of it (which MANY NFL players do). I'm sure Saban would be the first to tell you (privately) that it was his bad. oh, and it's rotator cuff, not rotorcup. It holds your arm bone into your shoulder bone (scapula); without it, your arm falls off.

anonymous-

You're an idiot!

1:48 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Greg...

you say he was not throwing at the time... bullshit!!!!! You freakin whinny med assitant. no one here needs to appologize for what is said about that worthless piece of shit Culpepper. we needed a qb not a fricken anchor holding us back like he is doing. the percentage of rotorcup surguries that work are greater than knee surgeries. I studied medicine too, and know the absolute changes in correcting injuries as such.

Bite my ass if you do not like what I have to say. It is time we grow up here and quit talking as if we are the all knowing. The number one constant in healing is the person, and i do not see it in this moron, but you could see it the year before while brees played with his arm injured. You knew he would come back, but some people are still lost in the 50' & 60's when there were no quick cures for these problems.

yeah... lets blame luck for being stupid. was it luck that beat the bears this year or was it a team effort that finally showed up after an ex-player made a statement no one liked. luck my ass. armando's lucky to have a damn job from running this blog like a kid site.

6:06 PM  
Blogger NYdolfan84 said...

Anony,

IF you studied medicine and learned about a "rotorcup" You must have flunked out first semester. Holy shit. Don't EVER, EVER insult someone else's intelligence. There is no way you went to college if you think there is a body part called a "rotorcup." I'm not going to pretend to know much about surgery. But, here is a simple way to look at it in football terms. QB's don't have to be mobile. QB's have to throw. A knee injury more often than not is less of a concern than a rotator cuff, when it comes to QBs. Marino had all sorts of problems with his legs. Should we have picked Culpepper over Brees given the information we had at the time? NONE OF US KNOW. We didn't have the information that the organization did. Its one thing to come on here and pretend to be a GM, but people are going too far pretending to have a clue about being a doctor. Its a joke. This site has been really disapointing lately. I understand the rationale for not chosing Brees. I also understand why people hate Culpepper. Besides the injury, Brees like Culpepper had rocky times in SD, as well as spectacular times like he is enjoying now. After all, San Diego didn't draft Rivers because they thought Brees was an All-Pro. I know I am coming off as a Culpepper appologist, but it just drives me nuts when people act like they never had a doubt that Brees would be an MVP-type QB. Should we be upset that we missed a golden opportunity? YES If we could turn back time everyone would have chosen Brees. But to go to the extreme and say that every person in our personnel and medical staff are incompetent is insane. They didn't get to where they are today by being an active blogger. Each QB had his shares of Pros and Cons last offseason. I also think, Armando correct me if I'm wrong, we have less financial liability with Culpepper than we would have had with Brees because we traded for him. I think Minny will have to eat some or most of his guaranteed money. Brees had over 10 mil guaranteed that we would have been on the hook for if his arm never healed or was re-injured.

Look we can sit and whine about not having Brees or we can enjoy the rest of the year, and hopefully upgrade the roster in the offseason. Nothing means more to me than a win in Buffalo! (being from upstate NY) Hopefully the Phins pull it off and I won't have to buy the pizza, wings, and beer on Monday. I really think the way to beat the Bills is to run right at them. Morris used to play for them so he should be fired up. He needs to get 25-30 carries in my opinion. Our DL should terrorize Losman all day. I hope to see less of Zach blitzing and more focusing him on McGahee. Losman loves to dump it off to him and the Bills love to run him.

GO PHINS!

8:18 PM  
Anonymous The Greg said...

nydolphan84-

Right on brotha. That's all I was trying to say. Thanks for reminding me that there are at least a few sane people in this world.

& to go along with Armando's comments about luck, we still have a shot to get lucky this year. Yes, other teams need to lose, but they all have games that can be lost. I still haven't lost hope.

Go Phins!!!

8:03 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hey Armando,
I love this discussion. And some great things have been said in this blog.
I do believe we should look to the future and not dwell on the past. It sucks what happened but we can't change the past however we can learn from it and move on to the future.
Here is what I believe we can do for next year. The first thing we should do is get more talent into our O-line. We need a O-line that can make things happen even against a championship defense. Next would be to get rid of Culpepper and find a better franchise QB. But I don't believe Saban will get rid of him. Because I believe Saban thinks Culpepper hasn’t had a real chance to prove himself as a Dolphin. (however I have never though Daunte was ever very good) So since that is out of the picture what do we do? My thought is to get a talented young QB as a backup. Who can come into the role as a starting QB. I don't think Harrington can be a franchise QB however he is an excellent backup. We need a young guy with the potential to be great. I know this can be tough but I believe if we spend some money we can do it. Your thoughts?

I love the Phins and I only want them to succeed.

- jl

9:16 AM  
Anonymous finndolphan said...

a daunte without his complete mobility is a qb who will never lead anyone anywhere!what we saw at the beginning of the year is pretty much what you will get!he lacks the cerebral savy to be anything but an"athletic qb",look at the difference when joey went in, hardly any sacks since! i think this will be the gamble that never pays off!and goddammit i hope i'm wrong!

5:37 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

nydolfan... blow me, rotor, rotator cup, I did not think you idiots would know the difference. Greg calls it a shoulder injury, so apparently he does not know what he is talking about, nor do you. I used the term most people call it, so no one would be befounded by my words of wisdom. damn cry babies....wha... wha... need any pampers?

9:42 PM  
Blogger NYdolfan84 said...

cuff not cup...and it is essentially in your shoulder! Jackass..you must not follow baseball too much. Watching ER religiously doesn't constitute studying medicine you stroke. Thats the great thing about blogs, you can pretend to be something you are not, until you say something ridiculously stupid. You need to stop going to Best Buy to use the Internet and stay in your trailor. But thats all I will say to you. You proved your ignorance to all of us. Daunte looked like shit and we didn't sign Brees. Life must go on! The team and its fans must move on!

On another note:
Don't ever let a Bills' fan tell you how much better they are than you. Don't get me wrong, they are very passionate fans, but they still had 4,000 tix left as of yesterday. That's pathetic. It will be the first Dolphins' game in Buffalo that won't sell-out since 1987 I believe. I think their franchise will be relocated within a decade. Their demographic is getting worse every year. Their isn't room to cut ticket prices because they are probably already the lowest in the league. Their owner is also very worried about the new collective bargaining agreement. I think more Sports fans are chosing to see the Sabres over the Bills if they can't afford to do both. It sucks too, because it's a great rivalry. Even though Harrington-Losman doesn't sound quite as good as Marino-Kelly. It was great when we were both playoff teams year in and year out. Actually I would rather see them go 0-16. GO PHINS!! KILL THE BILLS!

10:36 AM  
Anonymous No Longer Doomed to be a Bills Fan said...

The Phins will have to be REAL lucky to beat the Bills tomorrow. Harrington's going to be flat on his back, or throwing interceptions/fumbling, as usual. Willis Mc will be stepping on/over JT's prone body on the way to long runs (Has JT ever made a tackle other than on a QB sack?). You Phins are "media whipped" into thinking JT is good. He's a prima dona, talking heads, golden boy, who's never been any good against the run. The Phins o-line is the only one in the league worse than the Bill's. Better shoot your special team "players" up with meth ''cause McGee and Parish are going to go "ALL THE WAY..." I'll be back on Monday to check on what's left of your psyche.

2:46 PM  
Blogger finnman said...

geez... nydolfan. you are a bloomin idiot. you must sit on your ass all day just to find something miss spelled or stated incorrectly. your half ass lamed attempt to prove you have brains is worthless. if i wanted to sit and look for reasons just to how smart i am, i would not be on here with you freakin morons.

everyday someone here is at someones throat because you or the ones like you have nothing better to do, or can hide your dumb ass behind your screen name on your computer. maybe if you were not so stupid you might get laid, and possibly stop this quest for king dick head.

i also do not watch the show you so proudly watch yourself. your so far stuck on those soap opera's you cannot tell reality from fantasy. Not everyone in the med field calls the parts exactly as they should be called, we know what we are talking about to not worry on being exactly correct on how we say the word.did you know that dong is another name for you? you know dong. it is shit like you and the one who gave birth to you because apparently she did not teach you how to treat others as you would want to be treated yourself. anonymous, keep ragging on fools like this. these freakin einstiens, who know jack shit but call everyone else the idiots.

everyone here worries about football as if his life depended on it, but i bet you never get your ass up to change the bullshit happening around here in the states. yeah, pay these efen babies mega millions to play a game while the rest of the people struggle to make it.

they should be paid by performance. you do not perform today, you get paid shit. they need to earn what they get as the rest of us. if these guys on our team are not worthy of keeping they should not be in the NFL. play or get out!!!!!!!!

6:46 PM  

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