Trading the first pick to the Cowboys? Not so fast

On November 30th I told you of the practical certainty that Cowboys owner Jerry Jones would contact the Dolphins about trading for the first overall pick because, well, he already knew which player he would select.

Darren McFadden.

Here is the post from nearly two months ago: http://dolphinsindepth.blogspot.com/2007_11_01_archive.html

Well, now ESPN in recent days has reported that Jones would love McFadden. And there are Internet reports stating Jones has already contacted the Dolphins about that first overall pick.

The truth: Jones would love McFadden. More truth: There have been no substantive talks between the teams about trading picks as far as I have been able to confirm.

Sorry.

Now is simply not the time for such talk. It's too early and Jones would have to be a fool to approach the Dolphins this early because he would tip his hand as to exactly how desperate he is to have his fellow Arkansas Razorback on his roster.

And Jerry Jones is many things but a fool is not one of them.

Jones knows the Dolphins will be trying desperately to get out of that No. 1 overall pick. He knows they're going to hold that pick as long as they think they can continue to drive up the price of the compensation for that pick. And he knows no one other than him is really all fired eager to trade with the Dolphins right now.

So this is going to take a while, people.

If it happens at all, and that is a big if, it will likely not happen until well after the Indianapolis Scouting Combine in February and probably not until after the NFL league meetings in March. By then, Jones will have seen McFadden run and jump and pump and shuttle with all the other draft eligible players at the combine. And the Dolphins will have gotten a better idea of what might be available to them further down the draft board.

Another reason this might take a while is because it's going to take some massaging. The Dolphins would be dumb to give up the first pick for Dallas's two first round picks which are 22nd and 28th. That two-for-one is simply not equitable for Miami. So negotiations are going to be required.

The Cowboys would have to throw in another pick and perhaps a player also. Otherwise the Dolphins will be getting the extreme short end of the trade.

One more thing: You'll be hearing a lot about the draft value chart in the coming weeks and months as it relates to any Dolphins trade-down scenario. Please forget about the stupid chart for the time being.

The chart only measures the value of the first player taken in the draft in comparison with players in other slots throughout the draft board. It was fabricated in large part by Jimmy Johnson way back in the 1990s when the salary cap was not in play and bonuses had not grown to today's gargantuan sizes.

With those two newer factors in play, the value of the first overall pick is somewhat mitigated because of the grand risk the first pick poses along with the obvious potential for reward. Said another way, the first overall pick gives the Dolphins the chance to pick the draft's best player. But is also gives the Dolphins a chance to blow it in unprecedented fashion.

If they pick the wrong player they can cost themselves in excess of $31-$35 million in guaranteed money and years of damage to their salary cap.

That risk must be weighed against the grand possibilities of picking first. Put those on a scale and the value of that pick decreases -- particularly in a year like this one when there is no undisputed, clear-cut stud can't-miss player available at No. 1.