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Wednesday, April 25, 2007

Dolfans should root for Oakland to take Johnson

Got a call from a friend who works at ESPN last night -- a prominent on-air personality, by the way -- and he was telling me that the through its various NFL sources, there is a thinking at the World Wide Leader that the Raiders first-round pick will be Calvin Johnson.

Not JaMarcus Russell.

The sources say the Raiders are not convinced Russell, for all his considerable talents and extraordinary potential, is a good fit as a west coast offense quarterback. They also contend that that Johnson is simply rated higher on the Oakland board than Russell and that the team can always use their first pick of the second round to get a quarterback like Stanford's Trent Edwards or BYU's John Beck.

So how does that affect the Dolphins, you ask?

Are you kidding me, I respond. It would be great news for Miami.

If Russell doesn't go first, it is possible he'll go third to Cleveland. That means Brady Quinn, who might have otherwise ended up in Cleveland if Russell is taken first, could be within trading distance for the Dolphins when the Redskins are on the clock at No. 6

The Redskins are said to value LaRon Landry but are looking for trade partners to drop a couple or three spots because they think they can get the LSU safety later in the first round. The Dolphins would need to get that high to get ahead of No. 7 Minnesota, which would scoop up Quinn if he's on the board when they pick.

The difference between No. 6 and No. 9 overall in draft value charts is about 300 points, so that is what the Dolphins would have to give Washington in this scenario.

It may be coincidental but Miami's second pick in the second round (60th overall), which it got from the New England Patriots in the Wes Welker trade, comes with a value of about 300 points.

So what do you think? Are you now rooting for the Raiders to pass on Russell? And would you give up a second-round pick (the 60th overall selection) to move up to No. 6 and get Brady Quinn?

God, I love this draft intrigue!

37 Comments:

Anonymous Johndb said...

That would be fine, But Detroit really likes Okoye and may have a deal with Miami to Pick Quinn at 2 and trade with Miami when the Dolphins pick at 9. The fins would give them other stuff to work out the points like Duante. Miami is trying not to have to give them any picks.

6:00 PM  
Anonymous John Michaels said...

If swapping first rounders and giving the Skins the 60th pick was the price we would have to pay for Brady Quinn, I say go for it. If the Dolphins have a chance to solve their quarterback problems with their first pick, without having to pay a real steep price, you have to make that deal! Now, is that what the Redskins will settle for? Nobody really knows how much they may ask for from teams who want Brady Quinn.

As it stands, Washington only has one selection on the first day. After that, they only have a fifth rounder, two sixth rounders, and a seventh rounder. It's possible, that the Redskins could sucker a ton of picks out of Minnesota, (we all know how much Rick Spielman loves to give away draft picks). Gotta love the intrigue surrounding the Draft! Saturday can't come soon enough.

6:07 PM  
Anonymous Nick Nashville said...

Sounds like some juicy stuff, but honestly, the marquee name might be in Quinn, but the solutions to the Miami Dolphins success is in the Offensive Line.
Miami might not be wrong in going in either direction, but look at it realistically, how good is a QB without protection? How good is a RB without people to block for him?
Fact is, as unattractive as it may sound, Miami's best move is to grab quality linemen...

6:11 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Nick..not faulting your logic, but Houck has made patchwork lines work well for years...there will be olineman available in the 2nd round...and next year. It's well accepted in NFL circles that guards can be found in rounds 3-5 every year.

Now if we had the option of getting thomas or quinn by trading up I say go oline. But brown is a bit of a reach at 9 anyway...and with the opportunity to get a franchise qb the alternative I think you have to go QB everytime.

I also am not advocating this...but think trading up a few slots to grab staley in the early 2nd could be an option...but if we made both those trades we'd have to be happy with a franchise QB and a projected starting tackle as our first day bounty.

Furthermore...when you think of Marino's success who do you think of as protecting his blindside?....exactly R. Webb. Marino's most prolific year was 6 years before R. Webb was drafted. P. Manning was well developed before Tarik Glenn was drafted as well. QBs take longer to develop than tackles, and are harder to find so you draft QB then OL.

6:55 PM  
Anonymous Don't do it to me Again said...

I don't like it, I don't like it at all. This would be horrible the talent drops off tremedously after staley and he is going to be taken in the first round. There is no hoping for him to fall into round 2. If Calving goes at pick 1 then this just makes it that much harder for Miami to make the right choice and that is o-line at 9. There is no reason to trade up, I hate the idea of giving up a second round pick. This draft has alot of talent in the second round, excluding lineman & linebackers, that we could pick up and make our team better. I just hope that the front office can make the right choice, don't be fooled by the smoke and mirrors

7:12 PM  
Anonymous Jacob99 said...

I strongly believe that cam cameron and randy meuller can find linemen in the 3rd or later rounds that can come in and contribute. We need players at the skill positions who can contribute to scoring points and moving the chains! I think if its possible to get Quinn we need to take him. We havn't drafted a quarterback in the 1st round since Marino. That little statistic needs to change in this years 07 draft!!!

8:29 PM  
Blogger Andy said...

I love the idea of getting Quinn, but I am not as certain as others seem to be that we will have to trade up if Oakland takes CJ. Minnesota spent a 2nd rounder on Travaris Jackson last year - I dont think it is a given that they would take Quinn over a position of greater need (secondary - Landry or Hall perhaps?). A 2nd round QB who has not had a chance to prove himself is tough to just give up on in his second season. My feeling is that if CJ goes to Oakland we have a great shot at staying at 9 and getting Quinn. Even if Oak does take Russell, there is always a chance that Cleveland will grab Peterson at 3 to fill another need, leaving Quinn there possibly for us anyway. If not, Levi is not a bad consolation prize. I say we stay put. That 60th pick is valuable. Could land us a solid O Lineman or a WR - both of which fill needs for us. If we have to settle for Beck/Edwards/Stanton, at least we will put more talent around him if we keep the picks.

10:09 PM  
Anonymous Tom in Nashville said...

Not overly enthused with that scenario, to tell you the truth. I would LOVE for miami to retain all 3 picks in the first 2 rounds and grab the following...

1. Levi Brown or Joe Staley

2a. John Beck, Trent Edwards or Drew Stanton (in that order)

2b. RB Chris Henry (Arizona) or a talented WR left on the board.

10:14 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Not that thrilled with moving up to gfet Quinn. I favor Brown, then Blaylock then Beck or possibly Kolb and the maybe a wideout like Steve Smith or David Clowney..to me that would be a perfect first day.

10:29 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Cleveland won't pass on Quinn..they take him over Jamarcus either way.

10:50 PM  
Anonymous chris said...

Armando...its official...you are on crack!! First, if Oakland picks Johnson, that will have made the decision easier for Detroit in not having to pick another wideout and pick Russell. Thus making it easier for Cleveland to go with Quinn, if they don't go with Peterson. Anyone who has seen Quinn play anyone other the tough (LOL) defenses of AirForce, Navy & Mich. State, knows he's nothing more than a servicable backup! He's short, has avg. speed & an ok arm. The only thing good anyone can say about him is he's inteligent and has great work ethics. So did Flutie! Guess Brady will look great next to the Gray Cup!
For those that say we should trade up...WHY? Unless its to get Johnson or Thomas, keep our picks and go for needs. God knows we have plenty of them!!!!

10:52 PM  
Anonymous John123 said...

Johnab: First: Detroit wants Gaines Adams. Second: Thats way too big of a price for Quinn. Third: Martz is a Culpepper hater, doesn't like him so there is zero chance they have any interst. Not that Culpepper has any trade value anyways.

Trading with the skins? It doesn't take much. according to the point chart Skins pick is 1600 points phins is 1350. The phins 3rd round pick is worth 225 late second round 300. So the price isn't outrageous and the only competition would possibly be Minnesota but I have a hard time believing they would offer anything significant if anything at all because they blew picks last year to trade up for Jackson. Also the Redskins have zero leverage because they need picks and everyone knows how bad they want out of the pick. Detroits pick is 2600 so that should tell you how much more it costs to go from 9 to 2 than it does 9 to 6.


Chris: Brady quinn is listed at 6'3 3/4". a 1/4" shorter than Brady, hasselbeck, and 4" taller than Brees. Height is not an issue.

SI claims that the Raiders will go Johnson as a compramise. If they go QB Kiffin wants Quinn not Russell. Davis wants Russell. So they will settle on Johnson. Could just be talk to try and make teams trade with them instead of Detroit.

11:14 PM  
Blogger shoesan said...

I love drafting Quinn... but only at pick 9. I would not trade a second rounder to move up to take him. Wait it out and hope he slides to us. If not, take Okoye. Our D-line is solid, but we need youth. Okoye is a prodigy. If he isn't there, settle for Levi Brown unless we could actually trade down and still get Staley. Miami isn't very good at trading down though. When they drafted REonnie Brown at 2, Cleveland was offering to trade up from 3 with us, but "didn't offer enough". What? They didn't want Brown, so we were gonna get him anyways. Heck, trade down that one spot even for only a cup of coffee. If anything, it reduces the salary we'd have to pay a high-drafted rookie. That chart reallly can get in the way sometimes...

Shoe

11:28 PM  
Blogger The Dude said...

I think that's exactly what will go down if Oakland takes Calvin. And I'm all for it. We'd basically be trading Wes Welker for Brady Quinn. And yes, there are plenty of offensive linemen to get in the second and third rounds: James Marten, Tony Ugoh, Doug Free ... the drop off after Levi is not so bad. I say go for it.

http://mvn.com/nfl-dolphins/2007/04/24/will-the-fins-trade-up-for-brady-quinn/

12:17 AM  
Anonymous newcombe said...

If Oakland takes Russell, and Cleveland takes Quinn, we are in a world of hurt! Then Detroit and Minnesota would be more likely to grab QB's in Rd. 2 (probably Edwards and Stanton)ahead of us. Beck from BYU is already 25! Anyone remember Chris Weinke? If Oakland passes on Russell, Cleveland will take him (he and Phil Savage has history). Then we must move up to 6 to grab Quinn. If Oakland takes Russell, we have to move to 2, which is mighty pricey.

1:28 AM  
Anonymous Iguazu Falls said...

KC has now released Daunte Hall and St. Louis picked him up. Now St. Louis doesn't need returner Ted Ginn Jr. and he could very easily slide to Miami's 1st pick in the 2nd round!

Thus Saturday could end up something like this...

1)Al Davis is looking more and more like he wants Daunte so Miami trades DC to O-town for Jerry Porter strait up. They can pick Green up when he's released by KC.

2)Miami moves up by trading their 2nd 2nd and picks up Quinn.

3)Miami drafts Ted Ginn Jr. with their 1st 2nd.

Miami can pick up OL help in either the 3rd or 4th if necessary. We would immediately see what Quinn was all about as he would have a couple decent RB's and 4-5 good receivers to work with. Remember, a healthy Joe Toledo would probably be a 3rd or 4th round pick this year if he were comming out now and Ricky Williams and Cory Schlesinger have a way of making O-Lines look better than they really are.

1:32 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Jamarcus Russel has "Biggest Bust of this Draft" written all over him. Reminds me of Ryan Leaf. Would not be surprised if he slips down a bit. Calvin Johnson is a no brainer for the Raiders.

7:41 AM  
Anonymous John123 said...

Minnesota is not drafting a QB in the second round (although it doesn't really matter because Miami picks ahead of them in the 2nd round). They drafted their future QB last year. THey will only consider drafting Quinn because its one of those too good to pass up things. Which is why I don't think they are going to go out of their way to get him. If he is there at 7 they will think hard about it if not oh well.

Miami doesn't have to worry about getting the shaft in the second round. Of the 8(7 in the second round) teams ahead of Miami only Oakland, Detroit and Cleveland are definately taking a QB in the first 2 rounds.

8:31 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

If the Raiders take Russell as suspected, Miami should consider making a run at Detroit's pick to get Johnson. Even with a steep price tag this guy is a real "difference " maker. Coupled with Miami's backs(assuming Ricky is back)teams would have a hard time defending that offense even with a young, unproven line.

9:11 AM  
Blogger Flipzone said...

Ok, everyone makes great arguements but I definitely do not think we should trade our picks for Quinn. I have a bad feeling about this guy! Many NFL scouts and analysts are really high on John Beck. Many rate him as the next great successful QB in draft. Just yesterday they discussed this on ESPN. He seems to be a great value as a 2nd rounder and we can build talent around him with the other 9 picks especially a 1st and another 2nd!! That's how you build a championship team....look at the freakin' Pats!!!!

9:50 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Armando, it should not matter if Russell drops. The phins need to trade down afew spots acquire an additional second rd pick and build the team. If the lowly Raiders can think of talking a Qb in the second, then why cant the phins. They need to build the team with youth and more picks. The real value in this draft is in rds 2-4. Hope we trade down to 15or 16 and still get our Dt/Dl. Take all offense in the second, a QB, OT, and WR. That is more value than Brady.

9:54 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Are you guys kidding me...we stay putat 9 and draft Levi or trade down to get Staley,2nd round we get our new WR or RB,butQuality RB's can be found in the 3rd rd,so i say WR,then with the 2nd pick in rnd 2 draft our QB in Kevin Kolb(this years Alex Smith)he's a winner and on a poor team almost beat big time programs on his arm alone-yes he might be a system QB,but he's smart,has better than avg. arm strength,and he'll have Cam tutoring him.that is the best scenerio in my opinon.I'm tired of trading away our picks,this team has too many holes to fill for that garbage.

10:18 AM  
Anonymous RAC said...

Moving to 2nd is too expensive, from 9th to 6th for Quinn would be a good move, if the Raiders-Johnson scenario pans out. We are loaded up on picks late in the draft, odds are that one good OL will emerge from this draft. Drafting Quinn allows us to move Culpepper for (hopefully) a 5th or 6th round pick. I would not trade for Green, wait till the Chiefs have to cut him, Peterson deserves no better.

10:31 AM  
Anonymous John123 said...

I'm not sure Culpepper has any real trade value. Even if he did he is untradeable during the draft because any team trading for him wants to examine his knee and medical records. not enough time on draft day to do that sort of thing.

I don't think some of you understand what it takes to trade #2. If the Dolphins did that they wouldn't be picking again until the 6th round and probably lose a pick in 2008. According to the Value chart if we gave them every pick we have in rounds 1-5 we would still be short 100 points. I know the value chart is not written in stone but with so many teams being interested I doubt its on the low side.

The Dolphins gutted their roster. We need a WR, TE, QB, OL, a backup RB and some young players on D. Trading our whole draft for 1 player just burries this team for years.

11:03 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

If trading with Washington at #6 really means we'll get Brady Quinn, I think you would have to pull the trigger on that. Otherwise you stand pat and take Levi Brown at #9 and get a QB in the 2nd round. I think the draft will look something like this:

1- Levi Brown, T, Penn State
2- Drew Stanton, QB, Mich. St.
2- Anthony Gonzalez, WR, OSU
3- Eric Weddle, S, Utah

Some of it might be wishful thinking, but I have a feeling if we don't get Quinn that would be the Dolphins draft order, OL, QB, WR, S.

11:15 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Mark B said....If Russel and Quinn are gone and there is a chance at Peterson, draft him if you know you can work out Ronnie Brown to GB at 16th and then pick either OT Staley or WR Ginn with that pick. Not that Brown is not good but you can get a upgrade to a talent like Peterson, and still get another offensive player and keep your two 2 rounders. Your thoughts?

11:29 AM  
Blogger david said...

As some have suggested, I think this is the time to WAIT. Be patient. If Quin isn't gone at #3, he could very well fall to 9. The Skins aren'nt going to take him, and are the Vikes really going to pull the trigger? I don't know, but they have plenty of other holes to fill and I think we shouldn't bail them out. Sit tight, and if Quinn falls you have value at #9, or if not you grab Brown if available. Someone always drops, so I don't think we need to push. Meanwhile, the QBs in round 2 aren't that far off of Quinn, but the tackles don't seem ready to start. If you come out with a tackle (Brown), a QB (Beck), and a WR (Sidney Rice?), that would be a heck of a bounty for the offense.

1:46 PM  
Blogger Mitchell said...

Here's a scenario: If Peterson falls to the Fins at #9 which is looking more likely, trade down to the Packers and pick up their 2nd rounder (47) and their first rounder (16). With #16 select Bowe, Ginn or Staley (or maybe Branch if he's still available).

Then trade the 47th and 60th pick to move up into the bottom of the first round to pick up the next best QB.

Take Sidney Rice with the 40th pick. The guy's a stud and not getting nearly enough credit for carrying the Gamecocks offense.

2:43 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Forget all this draft stuff and concentrate on Cam Cameron. our future lies in him!

The teams with the best coaches win Super Bowls.

4:34 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I think trading up is a terrible idea. The Dolphins have many needs, and for once we have a personnel guy who knows how to draft. If anything, I would prefer to trade down and accumulate more picks in what may be this draft's area of value, rounds 2-3. But I doubt we'll be able to trade down because I'm guessing that many teams want to keep their picks in the lower first round-through-third round areas. Regardless of whether we trade down, up or stay put, I am solidly AGAINST drafting Brady Quinn. Call me when he plays well against a decent defense.

4:43 PM  
Anonymous The Greg said...

First of all Armando, you don't need to try to impress us by telling us how many "prominent on-air personalities" you know and speak to. A simple "source within ESPN" (or even just "a source") would have sufficed! It makes you seem really "small-time". "Big-timers" don't have to rub in how many "prominent on-air personalities" they know. Dude, you're a sportswriter, we all EXPECT you to know famous people!

Now, to the point, like many others that have posted, I don't think what happens with CJ/Russell should change the Fins' draft plans. I would not trade up to get Brady Quinn (we need all the picks we can get!), but I would be happy to take him if he fell to us. If he doesn't fall to us, I dreamed up another scenario that would be reeee-dicously nice for the Fins, here it is...

We trade away the #9 pick (worth 1350 points) to the KC Chiefs for their 1st (#23 - 760 pts), 2nd (#54 - 360 pts), and 3rd (#82 - 180 pts) AND Trent Green. The total points for the 3 picks we get from KC would be 1300, and that 50 pt gap is worth the 25th pick in the 4th round, which would be right in between what we offered for Trent (6th round) and what they countered with (2nd round). So, points-wise, the trade makes sense...

Now, I haven't done the scouting, so I wouldn't dare suggest who they should pick, but we could certainly fill a need with the #23 pick (see Joe Staley - OT Central Mich, Dwayne Bowe - WR LSU, Robert Meachem - WR Tenn, Reggie Nelson - S UF, Greg Olsen - TE Miami, Ryan Kalil - C USC, etc.). With our 3 2nd rounders we could pick up a QB (Beck, Stanton, Edwards, Kolb), another O-lineman (Ugoh, Sears, Blalock, etc.), a LB (Posluzny, Harris, etc.), etc. etc. etc.

We have sooo many needs, I feel like I can go on forever.

Obviously, this would all be contingent on KC really wanting someone they could only get at the 9 spot (Okoye, Adams (big maybe), etc.), but making this trade could turn this franchise around. With 6 first day picks, and a total of 12 pick all together, we could do a whole lot!!!

A Dolfan can dream can't he...

4:44 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

SHEEEEP!!!!!

Brady Quinn IS Rick Mirer NOT Joe Montana!!!!!

Just because he agent has him on every magazine & newspaper cover does not make him a ProBowl player!

Hype doesn't throw touchdowns!!!

6:38 PM  
Blogger Gregory said...

Here's my take on Miami's 2007 NFL Draft:

If Oakland takes Johnson at #1 and Cleveland takes either Russell or Quinn, it's possible the remaining of those two quarterbacks becomes this year's Matt Leinart (since the Lions at #2 are sold on Kitna, they will more likely look at Adams or Thomas here), falling to Miami at #9. I mean, Tampa Bay at #4 has too much invested in QB's to warrant drafting another one. Same goes for Washington at #6. Arizona at #5 brough in their QB of the future last year with Leinart. Atlanta #8 has Michael Vick, enough said. That only other team in Miami's path to getting one of the two top quarterbacks in the draft is Minnesota at #7. And they traded up last year to invest their future in Jackson. So, even though it is speculated that they would go for another QB, it just seems unlikely they would want two potential "franchise" QB's on that roster. And there are plenty of "2nd-tier" QB's that will be steals for the teams that take them (John Beck, Trent Edwards, Drew Stanton). And since we have two 2nd round picks, we can afford to take one of those 3 in the second round. You could build a team around any of these 3 QB's with the remaining picks we have. It just means that we might not be able to play them in a year, they might take a year or two (so we need a veteran QB who can play for at 1-2 years). Thus, I think Miami needs to stay at #9. Miami has TOO MANY holes that need to be filled on this team to warrant giving up any draft picks (OL, young QB, WR, TE, young DL). So, this is how I think we ought to hope Day 1 pans out (I put two options there, depending on if the "ideal" scenario that this blog is talking about pans out and one if it doesn't:

1st Round (#9):
- Brady Quinn or Jamarcus Russell
- Levi Brown

2nd Round (#40)
- top rated WR on board
- John Beck, Trent Edwards or Drew Stanton (I would prefer Stanton personally)

2nd Round (#60)
- top-rated OL on board
- top-rated WR on board

Once we start getting into the 3rd Round, we can start looking to add either the "best player available" or we can start shoring up some depth on the OL/DL (and pick up the remaining need positions as they come up).

7:29 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Have we learned nothing the last five years? Keep our #9 pick, if he falls then draft him. We are not 1 player away folks. Keep all of our draft picks. It was just 10 years ago we kept trying to build around Dan the Man and never built a Defense to compliment him. I read trade our picks trade our picks. Lets keep all of them and build a TEAM.

8:25 PM  
Anonymous John123 said...

Greg: Would be great if we could pull a trade off like that but unfortunately KC is in a position similar to the phins. They are old and don't have many good young players. They have LJ and the LB out of Texas (I can't remember his name) but other than that its a bunch of old players.

Also its going around that the phins are shopping Marty Booker. My money is on St. Louis. They are in love with the Dolphins roter. So it looks like they are just ripping the offense to pieces. Chambers and Brown might be the only returning players with actual stats next year. I guess I rather be bad with a bunch of 20 year olds than bad with a bunch of 30+.

9:28 PM  
Anonymous Mike said...

Would I be happy if we gave up a 2nd rounder to get a QB that is the most overhyped player in college football today? In a word. NO. Stay at 9 and draft Brown, or trade down and draft Staley. We have too many holes on the line to worry about drafting Quinn and giving up another pick to do so.

8:35 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Teddy Gin will NOT be there when the Fins pick in the 2nd round. That would be the steal of draft day.

12:36 PM  

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