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Friday, April 27, 2007

Here's the deal on draft eve

It is draft eve and you should now be stocked up on food, beverages and a map outlining the route to get you to and from a bathroom quickly. You are ready to watch eight hours of draft coverage.

But do you know what is likely to happen?

Well, that's why you are here. This is what is likely to happen Saturday for the Miami Dolphins:

MOST LIKELY PICK AT No. 9: Offensive tackle Levi Brown. It's not sexy but the Dolphins realize (I think) that you need a foundation for the offense and that position is a HUGE need. There's an argument out there that OL coach Hudson Houck can make good players out of low draft picks so don't waste one this high. Well, have you thought about what Houck can do with a high pick? He should be able to turn them into a monster! This move also allows Miami to possibly let Anthony Alabi get some snaps at right tackle and left guard, thus improving the depth along a line that is paper thin on talent.

MOST LIKELY TRADE: I think the Chiefs realize that if they don't get something for Trent Green now, they may not get anything at all. Next year is a long time to wait for a conditional pick so I think wiser heads will prevail and the two sides finally agree on a deal. I do know this: The Dolphins aren't giving up a second round pick.

MOST LIKELY SCENARIO FOR GETTING BRADY QUINN: The Dolphins desperately want Quinn. They want him enough to give up picks in the second round to get him. So if Quinn falls past Cleveland at No. 3, the Dolphins will be on the phones trying to get up to Arizona at No. 5 and Washington at No. 6 to get Quinn. This is fact. By the way, this scenario still happens if Washington and Chicago swap linebacker Lance Briggs for the No. 6 pick. The Dolphins will simply try to make the trade with the Bears.

(EDITOR'S NOTE: I do not think the Dolphins will get Quinn. The latest news about Adrian Peterson having re-injured his collarbone in the Fiesta Bowl will force the Browns to take Quinn instead of Peterson, I believe.)

MOST LIKELY SECOND ROUND SCENARIO: If the Dolphins can't get Quinn by making a trade in the first round, they know they have to pick up a quarterback soon thereafter, if possible. Everyone says three will be available in the second round when Miami picks but I have my doubts about that because Oakland, Detroit and Chicago could go shopping for QBs in the second round and all are ahead of Miami. Look for the Dolphins to try and trade up to get their targetted player. The guy the Dolphins like most out of BYU's John Beck, Michigan State's Drew Stanton and Stanford's Trent Edwards is (drum roll here) Beck. Edwards is second.

MOST LIKELY SECOND ROUND SCENARIO NOT INVOLVING A QB: The Dolphins need receivers and there is actually a thought among some draftniks that Ted Ginn Jr. will slip to the second round. I know you Ginnheads are going nuts now, but the fact is he's not the most polished receiver, not the biggest, and doesn't have the best hands. He is simply one of the fastest, but there are even questions about that as the speed has been affected by his slow-healing foot injury. So he could be around at the top of the second round and I wouldn't be shocked if the Dolphins move up to get him if he's there.

DARKHORSE PICKS: I'm told the Dolphins like Brett Ratliff, the Utah quarterback, and might take a chance on him the second day ... The team likes East Carolina QB James Pinkney as a all-purpose kind of player, sort of a runner, receiver, quarterback kind of guy. I believe Slash is the term the Steelers coined for such a player.

MIAMI'S BIGGEST SECRET: That would be Walter Thomas, a 370-pound defensive tackle from Northwest Mississippi Community College. He played only two games there after being recruited but not qualifying academically at places like Oklahoma State. Anyway, the guy runs a 4.9, can dunk, bench presses 475 pounds, can do standing back flips and cartwheels. Apparently he can also dominate the line of scrimmage. He's 21 and he's had legal issues (conspiracy to commit robbery), but he is such a physical freak that a handful of teams have visited with him. One of those teams is your Miami Dolphins.


Anonymous Anonymous said...

I'm exremely skeptical about any deal that involves trading up to get anybody, much less B. Quinn. The Dolphins haven't made the playoffs because of dealing away the future the past five years. For the first time in ions they have mulitiple picks in the top three rounds, and you're telling me to give most of those picks for one player. Question? What happens if Quinn doesn't workout? What then?
Looking at most of the mock drafts, if Quinn falls to the Dolphins at #9 and they pass on him, what other team in the top 25 would take a QB? The Carolina Panthers might be the only team that would consider it. I think the Dolphins are better served with picking OL,WR,TE,DL anything then looking at the second round to get a QB. And by all means, DO NOT TRADE AWAY ANY MORE PICKS!!! The Dolphins don't need one player, they multiple players.

10:56 AM  
Anonymous Mike in DC said...

My guess as to how it plays out... If Quinn gets past Cleveland (doubtful), Miami trades up to grab him at 6. If Quinn is taken by Cleveland, Miami tries to trade down to 14-20 to take Staley and add picks. If Miami can't trade down, they go best player available, even if that is a defensive player like Okoye or Landry. Then they go QB and OL with their next picks.

10:56 AM  
Anonymous Mike in DC said...

My guess as to how it plays out... If Quinn gets past Cleveland (doubtful), Miami trades up to grab him at 6. If Quinn is taken by Cleveland, Miami tries to trade down to 14-20 to take Staley and add picks. If Miami can't trade down, they go best player available, even if that is a defensive player like Okoye or Landry. Then they go QB and OL with their next picks.

10:57 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

No one has yet commented on the fact that Peterson might be there at 9. If that's the case, trade down to 16 where the Packers would give up their 1st and 2nd round picks. Then you can think about picking up a Joe Staley or Ted Ginn Jr or a Robert Meachum. Then use your three second round draft picks on the future nucleous of our team. I'd say out of five picks in the top 3 rounds, you address OT, QB, WR, CB, and TE. The rest of our picks, should be used at OG, where this draft is full of Guard talent in later rounds. Oh and Armando Salguero, you totally took my idea from my other blog and used it on ESPN, you da man. - Thomas Lietaert

11:14 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I don't think its much of a secret (the 370 lb) back flipper - anymore when you have an article 3 days before the draft on page 1 of the NY Times. Looks like an intriging pick (2nd or 3rd rd?).

11:15 AM  
Anonymous Iguazu Falls said...

I used to be a high on Quinn like everybody else but after hearing him interview the past few days, I'm beginning to have my doubts. For one, he inferred that the reason Jamarcus Russell had such a better game against him was because Russell wasn't throwing against LSU's defense and that the LSU receivers weren't dropping balls. Quinn was in effect throwing his own players under the bus with those comments.

11:24 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

No on Brady Quinn! The Dolphins don't have any games scheduled against Army. We need a major league quarterback who can complete deep outs. I hope they can trade down and get more picks.

12:18 PM  
Blogger The Dude said... is reporting that the Browns are deciding between Joe Thomas and Brady Quinn (not Peterson). So Quinn slipping is still a real possibility.

And here's the reason why Cam likes Quinn and Beck: He likes guys that fit well into his system -- not necessarily a guy with a cannon arm. Cam likes brainy, motivated QBs who can manage a game and throw the occational deep ball (like Drew Brees). So I'd be fine with either Quinn or Beck but I'd prefer Quinn.

Armando, any wild chance the Dolphins might consider Patrick Willis? Just wondering.

12:25 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I don't want Quinn for the Fish. I just don't think he's much better than the guys that will be available in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. I'd prefer Brown or if they were going to trade up I'd hope they traded up for Joe Thomas. As for who they take in the 2nd round of course that depends on who falls. But I do think there will be at least one very good WR available in the 2nd round that in a normal year would have been a first rounder - Sidney Rice for example. I think in the 3rd round they'd get the best value for the QBs that are available - Kevin Kolb or Troy Smith are my preferences.

12:31 PM  
Blogger Armando Salguero said...

Dude, thanks for the question: I love Patrick Willis and the Dolphins like him as well, but can you imagine a team with a ton of needs picking a player at a position where they have a Pro Bowl player in Zach Thomas and a youngster in Channing Crowder? This after they added Joey Porter to the linebacker corps already this offseason? The pick would cause Thomas to go nuts thinking he's being replaced right away and cause fans to come to Dolphins camp to protest.

1:21 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I really do not want to trade any picks to move up either, especially one of our 2nd rounders, I would be willing to get rid of the 3rd, but even then I would be nervous. I think we are trying to get a pick for Booker, but that would be a 4th at the absolute best. I say go ahead and take Levi, or best case AP slips to us and we hold him for ranson..Tenn, GB and Buffalo would be interested, if we could trade back and get a 2 I would be in heaven.

Say it's GB 1st and 2nd:

1st - Mecham
2nd - Best o-line
2nd - QB
2nd - Best Defense or o-line
3rd - BPA

That would be my dream, I think Mecham is going to be a stud and his best days are yet to come, then we could get Kalil second or o-line at 40, Edwards or Stanton with GB's pick and then defense with the about filling needs, three picks in the second is a dream!

1:28 PM  
Blogger The Dude said...

That's what I was afraid of. Ah well, a guy can dream...

Thanks for answering my Q. Armando.

1:33 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Armando....if Quinn is gone, do you see us trading down at all? I love the thought of being able to get a 1 and 2 for our pick, but can we get that much for #9? I do not think I would do it for a 1 and 3, but for a 2 I would!

Derek Hicks Rochester, NY

1:33 PM  
Anonymous John Michaels said...

Levi Brown would be the best pick at number nine. If Brady Quinn slides, then the whole dynamic changes. However, as we creep closer, and closer to the Draft his slide seems less likely. I wouldn't mind seeing John Beck in a Dolphins uniform, but I'd rather have Trent Edwards or Drew Stanton before him.

2:34 PM  
Anonymous EJSTOCK said...

Trade down, trade down, trade down. We have too many needs to trade up for Quinn, who may or may ot be the franchise quarterback we need. If JaMarcus Russell slips to 6, maybe its a different. but trading down and stocking up on O-line, D-line, QB and wide receiver is an imperative. If we come out with Staley, Meachem, Edwards, and a big body at D-line, we'll have done very well.

2:48 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

peter king has miami trading up to 5 and snatching joe thomas, which makes sense if you believe the cardinals like levi brown better? i'd take it!

3:13 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Pray that Quinn's on the board at #9 for he will be worth a 1st and 2nd and 4th rd pick. Quinn will want Russell $$ just like Leinert wanted Young $$ at #10 last year. Who wants to dish out $50M with $25 qauranteed for a guy that's not very accurate, makes poor decisions under pressure, and can't throw the deep out? Then take the best WR or DL then take QB in 2nd; unfortunately, Edwards will be off the board late 1st so go with Stanton over Beck. Forget TE as only one good one in the draft. The fish need players not wanna-be superstars.

3:32 PM  
Blogger CapedCrusader said...

Good stuff, Mr. Salguero.

I agree, while not sexy, it would be very interesting to see what Houck could do with a Levi Brown-caliber tackle...

On Quinn,
For some reason, I'm just not sold on Brady Quinn. After weeks of listening to interview after interview, I can't help but wonder how much of this is the 'real" Quinn, and how much is an act. I can't put my finger on it, but something just doesn't add up with this kid. Amazing physical attributes, seemingly good leader/teammate, but I can't shake the feeling that this guy is a flake...?

Anyway, what do I know about NFL quarterbacks?

I'm sure Cam and Randy cut through the b.s. with their "twist throwing" interviews. I'm going to trust their judgment on this one, and all that said, if he's our guy, I'll be the first in line cheering him to victory.

3:44 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

if the dolphins don't draft brady quinn the only franchise QB in this draft .....then it will be another dark day in dolphins football!

4:06 PM  
Blogger Armando Salguero said...

Derek: If quinn is gone, Brown is gone, I see Dolphins scrambling to trade down. Peterson around, I see Dolphins trading down. Trade down is indeed possible.

4:23 PM  
Blogger Armando Salguero said...

thomas, if you look at my last couple of blog posts, you see where I mention the distinct possibility Peterson could slip to Miami, now moreso of a chance since news of his re-injury to the shoulder in the Fiesta Bowl.

4:25 PM  
Blogger CapedCrusader said...

An observation:

Does anybody else find it interesting that Dolphins management seems to be handling the Ricky reinstatement with the same methodology as the Culpepper situation – i.e. no solid comment, one way or another?

Predraft posturing – most assuredly. However, given Culpepper’s implications the other day, I’d say Ricky’s future as a Dolphin may be equally bleak.

Let’s say that B.Quinn/L.Landry/L.Brown are off the board come pick nine, and there are no viable suitors to trade down and snag Staley/Ginn. What are the chances our team takes a flyer on Peterson?

Come on, Adrian Peterson's injury shouldn't dissuade teams from picking a back of his quality. It isn't like he's missing knee tendons or running on brittle ankles. It's a freak collarbone injury, and he shouldn’t miss any substantial time, right? Heck, he looked solid at the combine, despite the bum clavicle.

Granted, he doesn’t fill a need, but who can dispute the sexiness of having that one-two punch in the backfield - ala Tomlinson/Turner, McAllister/Bush, Brown/Williams (hehe) etc.

Just a mindless thought…

For the record, I still love Patrick Willis in the “stud who doesn’t fill an immediate need” category…

4:32 PM  
Anonymous Mark L said...

Aramando, I'm not a big Quinn fan. I think he's worthy of a 2nd round pick. So, I'm rooting that another team over values and selects him taking the temptation away from the Phins. If they trade up then LT Thomas from Wisconsin is worth the move. However, selecting Levi Brown at the 9 spot would be an excellent pick IMO.

5:21 PM  
Anonymous Carmen in Buffalo said...

To all the people excited about adding peterson and pairing him w/ ronnie brown...NO!!Ronnie Brown makes A LOT of money..and if you take peterson in the top 10 he's going to want A LOT of money. It's not worth it to spend that kind of cash on one position. A lot of teams have 2 back systems but not with 2 top 10 picks. Plus it will cause problems, if not this year than next year, with both players wanting to carry the whole load. We haven't given Ronnie Brown a chance. Yeah, he's had injuries, but nothing serious and we've never made the commitment to give him 20-25 carries a game. I still think he could be a stud if we use him correctly. Plus Ricky is playing for close to the league minimum and we would be stupid not to take him back. We have too many needs to draft a back. Pick him and trade him maybe...I say trade down and take ted ginn. They need his speed to stretch the field. Plus, he can be our devin hester. The fins have NEVER had a kick returner like that who can win games for you and take pressure off the offense. The Bears would have been a .500 team without hester last year....your thoughts...

6:52 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I would really like seeing Miami trade with Detroit and swap first round picks. Maybe toss-in a starting player to get the deal closed.

If not, try to trade with a team wanting a top-ten pick.

If no Quinn and no trade-partner, I hope the Dolphins pick Patrick Willis (ILB) with their first-round pick.

6:55 PM  
Blogger Pat said...

Does anybody know what you have to give up just to move up 2 spots in the draft??? It was reported Detroit want's both of Tampa's 2nd round picks just to switch picks. That's just 2 spots!!! Build the foundation. The OL. I just hope there is a surprise pick in the top 6. That'll force someone to fall back and if the Phins don't want them, they could trade back.

7:04 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Willis, Mecheam, Ginn are you guys kidding picking anyone of those guys will ensure that Miami will be watching the playoffs this year. Those are wannie picks. We need value at 9 meaning we need to fill need and best player available in levi brown. Best case scenario is Peterson falling to 9 and Green Bay getting on the phone offering a swap and their 2nd pick. With that we pick up Staley, get a qb, then take the best corner (our secondary was toast last year) D-lineman or Receiver with the remaing picks in the 2nd rd taking care of our biggest holes.

10:20 PM  

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