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Thursday, February 08, 2007

Quinn to Dolphins? Think again

Let me admit one thing right now: I am not up to speed on the draft yet.

It's two months away and I happen to have a life. So I don't know what JaMarcus Russell runs in the 40 or have an opinion on how quick Joe Thomas's feet are -- I do know, however, they are the size of a loaf of bread.

But I digress.

The one thing I definitely know is that all this talk I'm hearing lately about Notre Dame quarterback Brady Quinn being available at No. 9 when the Dolphins pick in two months is sheer lunacy. I know, I know, Mel Kiper recently wrote that Quinn would likely drop to the Dolphins at No. 9.

But guess what?

Just because my friend Mel speculated it might happen, won't make it so. And I hate to burst your bubble, Dolfans, but it won't happen. Just like Vince Young didn't drop to the Dolphins last year, Quinn won't this year.

How do I know? Well, it's not about what Quinn brings to the table or what his flaws are. It's about the draft order ahead of the Dolphins. Has anyone taken one second to look at the teams picking ahead of Miami?

Well, the Raiders pick first. They need a quarterback.

The Lions pick second. They need a quarterback.

The Browns pick third. They need a quarterback.

The Redskins pick sixth. They need a quarterback.

The Vikings pick seventh. And, yes, they need a quarterback.

Of course, anything can happen between now and draft day. Maybe Quinn will flop miserably during the Indy Combine (I doubt it). Maybe Randy Mueller is the greatest tactician since Patton (Possible) and he can somehow maneuver the Dolphins into the top five without giving away half his picks (Impossible).

But barring those unforeseen circumstances, don't bet on Brady Quinn being there when the Dolphins make their selection. Quarterbacks are the draft's most valuable commodity and they go fast, especially when they've played in a pro-style offense in college, which Quinn did.

34 Comments:

Blogger The Dude said...

Yea, you're right Armando.

Damn it.

4:48 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

we need the knuckle head quaterbacks we got out of here, so with that in mind trade up what ever it takes.i might not really know what im talking about, but i know one thing. we got to get a quaterback

6:13 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I mentioned this in the QB thread and this seems like a good place to mention it:

Use Chambers and possibly McMichael to trade up(if we can....don't know if they are considered that valuable to those higher drafting teams.)

We can easily...err...maybe hopefully pick up a better , more go-to WR to compliment Booker/Welker thru the draft or FA.

I though know even less than Armando about the draft...I don't follow college ball, and don't know if Quinn's worth it, or if it's deep enough where we can get a diamond WR to replace the 'Wonder Boy' that never was. Yes I'm pointing at you Chambers.

As I said earlier; A slam dunk WR to go along with Welker/Booker may help us in the QB spot more than finding a new QB right now.

Also another reality is that if they are staying with a classic pocket passer system, THEY NEED TO GIVE HIM SOME TIME TO THROW THE BALL!

7:01 PM  
Anonymous John Michaels said...

Armando, you pretty much hit the nail on the head in this one. However, I have to disagree with you on two things. First, the Redskins have their QB of the future in Jason Campbell. Second, I believe Minnesota is still sold on Tavaris Jackson. I can't see them taking Quinn. Besides they need major help in the secondary and at receiver.

7:35 PM  
Blogger Bloodlust said...

Armando...
As the Dude said, Damn it, you're right. This has been my biggest worry, getting into the draft and all the key players we need are already taken. QB's are so hard to find, or at least good ones are.

There too many teams struggling in the same way we are, and key players like QB, WR, RB are in high demand. That is what also worries me about Daunte.

We have heard nothing of his talent not being affected throughout his recovery. He's a 7 mil question mark, and without any great progress reports, that is all he will be. He will not even be a barganing chip in moving up in the drafts because everyone is as unsure about his recovery or possible come back.

I know there are many still backing or counting on him to return, but that is even a bigger gamble than picking Garcia or anyone for the QB position. At least with Harrington and Lemon, we know somewhat to expect out of them.

We just need to sit back and wait for the drafts to begin, and hope Mueller does his thing correctly as Armando stated.

8:58 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Didn't the Dolphins already give away a fifth or sixth rounder to get Brady Quinn? And by Brady Quinn, I mean Joey Harrington. Why would we want another average quarterback? You can pick those up in the FA market with a fifth or sixth round pick and not use a first rounder.

On a related note, Brady played for Charlie Weis. Is it just me or does Weis remind you of Bitchtits from Fight Club?

10:43 PM  
Anonymous Dustin said...

While I agree with you about Quinn probably not falling that far, I do think your logic is a little flawed. Teams usually need a certain amount of time to evaluate a new starter at the QB position, so I seriously doubt the Redskins and Vikings are ready to give up on Jason Campbell and Tarvaris Jackson. Campbell, a first rounder, had a pretty decent season. Jackson, a second rounder, didn't fare as well, but only got two starts. Teams usually don't spend two first day picks within two to three years on quarterbacks. It might even be a stretch for us to do it, being that we gave up a second last year. But I hope we do.

11:04 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

The way I see it, the Dolphins will be just fine staying at number nine, because no matter who the teams ahead of them pick, one of the premier players at a position they need will be available.
I would think that WR,OT,QB,NT,and a pass rushing DE/OLB are the dolphins biggest areas of need, and at no. 9, a player like OSU's Ted Ginn(WR), Penn State's Levi Brown(OT), Michigan's Alan Branch (NT), Clemson's Gaines Adams (DE) or yes, Brady Quinn, will be available.
I say cool talk on trading up, relax, and wait to see who is still there at number nine, because they are going to be someone who will be able to help this team, and they won't have to give anything up to get them

9:24 AM  
Anonymous Patrick said...

I tend to agree with anon on trading up for Quinn. I would say we need a CB also, but that just spells out the fact that there are a lot of holes on this team. As Armando pointed out, we would have to give up too much to get to number 3 or possibly 4 to get Quinn.

The problem has been this "we're a couple players away" mentality the team has taken for the last 6 years or so. It has left us with little room to work with in the draft. The players we have aquired are over the hill and do not have a lot of value in a trade scenario.

To fix this is going to require us to clean house of the players with percieved value such as Chambers and McMichael and even some of our coveted players such as Zack and Jason. These guys are not getting any younger and their value will drop off in the season or so especially if they are injured.

It's a harsh reality but we need to scrap it all and rebuild. By doing that we can aquire draft picks at all levels and our cap numbers will go down and we can also aquire some young FAs.

Sorry folks we're looking at a 3 year drought while we right the Wannstedt and Saban wrongs and get this thing back on track. I too would hate to see Zack and Jason gone but it is what it is. Trade them now or watch their value fade.

10:26 AM  
Anonymous Joseph said...

Armando, I have to disagree with you. First, let me say that I do not think Quinn will be a great NFL quarterback, but that is just a fans amateur opinion. However, lets look at the draft.
1. Raiders - probably taking J Russell.
2. Lions - no one really knows but I seriously doubt Millen would take another QB that high after the Harrington issue.
3. Browns (assuming they win the coin toss) - They seem to like Charlie Frye, and they have much bigger problems.
4. Bucs - Chris Sims
5. Cardinals - Matt Leinart
6. Skins - Jason Campbell, as others have mentioned, they like him in DC
7. Vikings - As mentioned by others, they like Jackson and have other needs (Brad Johnson is serviceable)
8. Texans - if they kept Carr and passed on Lienart and Young last year it seems like they would pass on Quinn this year.
9. Dolphins - as I said, i hope they do not take Quinn, but there is a decent chance he will be there. I would see him not being there if the Lions took him or if someone else traded up to get him.

10:44 AM  
Blogger Armando Salguero said...

To those of you who think neither the Redskins nor Vikings need quarterbacks, I remind you of these facts: 1. Both are coached by offensive minded coaches who value QBs probably more than other teams. 2. EVERY team places a special value on QBs. Did San Diego need to draft a QB when it had Drew Brees? No, but they did anyway. Did NE need to keep four of them in 2000? No, but they did and one of them was Tom Brady.

The point is you stockpile QBs and even if they don't play for you, they have value. If the Redskins or Vikings draft Quinn, but don't need him, someone will come around in a year or two and offer maybe a first and fourth for the guy. Right now teams are offering Atlanta a first and a fourth for their backup to Michael Vick and they want two No. 1s.

The point is need is important. But even teams with mild need will sometimes take a talented QB because it's just good business.

10:47 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Armando, I tend to still disagree with you regarding the Vikings and Redskins- while there is something to be said for stockpiling quality young quarterbacks, I dont think teams would prefer to use top 10 picks to do that, especially when those teams have glaring needs (Redskins-DLine, Vikings-WR)and premier players at those positions staring them in the face at those picks.
The Chargers did use a top 5 pick on Philip Rivers/Eli Manning, but that was before Drew Brees had his breakout season, and the Chargers felt he was not the answer at QB. It is possible that Redskins and Vikings feel that way about their current QB's, but it does seem a bit early in their careers for the respective teams to reach that conclusion- just my opinion

11:32 AM  
Anonymous Joseph said...

Armando thanks for responding to the comments but I have to disagree with you again, at least with the Redskins. I grew up in Virginia and therefore watched almost every Skins game until I moved to Texas last year and got the Sunday Ticket so I could stop going to sports bars. If there is anything that Joe Gibbs has proven since his return is that he wants to win now, not a few years from now. Drafting Quinn would be completely against everything that team has done the last few years. They trade away draft picks just like Rick Speilman and Wanny used to do. The Redskins will not draft Quinn to keep him around for a few years and trade him. That is something you do with lower round picks and hope you get lucky. Brady was a #6 and I think Schaub was a #3. I agree that the Rivers thing in San Diego was more of the Chargers not believing in Drew Brees than anything else. Teams with established QBs that appear to be the future of the franchise do not draft another QB in the first round. It is salary cap prohibitive. Think about the top 5 QBs in the league and the other QBs on the rosters, all of them are lowerr round picks for free agents.

Manning - Jim Sorgi - late pick
McNabb - Garcia - free agent
Brady - Cassell - late pick
Vick - Schaub - 3rd round
Palmer - I think Anthony Wright - FA
Hassleback - Wallace - late pick

It is just not likely to draft a QB in the top 10 if you already have your QB of the future. If you have a good QB you can win now and you do not want to waste the pick or the cap space.

I cannot speak on the Vikings as knowledgably but I have read they like Jackson. That does not mean they would pass up Quinn, but I think there is no chance the Skins draft Quinn (but if they do I will come on here and admit I was wrong). I hope they take Quinn so the Dolphins can get a playmaker at WR or one of those very good defensive linemen.

Having a 2nd highly paid QB will simply create a salary cap problem b/c the money Culpepper is getting. There is another good QB class coming next year so waiting a year to see what Culpepper does while developing the rest of the team would not hurt anything (very much at least).

12:03 PM  
Blogger mf52dolphin said...

I actually do think that Quinn could fall to the #9 spot. Looking at the draft list Quinn does not really seem to fill the need for each team.
At 1 team "Commitment to Stupidity" likes Russell(Culpepper version 2.1)
Detroit, they could use a qb badly, but who knows what Matt Miilen would do. Also Adrian Peterson would be a good fit for them.
Cleveland, a team which seems to not have qb as a valued spot, wants Peterson really badly. If he is gone, then a pass rusher.
Tampa wants Calvin Johnson
Arizona has Lienert so if Joe Thomas is there, and not taken, then they are stupid.
The Redskins have Campbell, who looks like a long term starter.
Now Minnesota's qb situation is weak. They could take quinn but they have a much bigger hole at wideout.
Houston is down on Carr, but they need a tailback a lot more.
So Quinn could be there.
But I don't want him. To me Quinn did not look much different at Notre Dame than Joey Harrington did at Oregon. In fact Harrington looked better.
Also at Notre Dame since Quinn played for Charlie Weis, who probably is the best active offensive coach in football(since Bill Walsh on Don Coryell are retired), and Quinn could not perform well in any big game. Therfore Quinn would not be expected to improve under any NFL coach.

12:21 PM  
Anonymous Jon said...

They shouldn't draft a qb with the first. If you do that, just gut the team. Trade Zach, JT, Booker, Carter, Culpepper, Harrington, and cut Zgonina, Wilkinson, and Traylor. If you're gonna draft a QB first, Blow it up. Because it'll be at least 2-3 years before this team can compete for anything.

12:48 PM  
Anonymous Hank in the 400 said...

It is possible that we could draft a #1 reciever in the first round and maybe take someone like Jeff Rowe from Nevada in the second round. He is 6'5" 225 with good arm strength and good touch. With a coach like Cam he maybe could be the next Brady. A SB QB that isn't a first rounder.

If we drafted Marino or Manning or even Montana or Young what could they do with a marginal o-line and recievers who drop a lot of catchable balls.

The problem is that since Wanstache we have been in a we want win right now mode but you don't build like that and eventually you become the Bucs or the Raiders or even the lions. The Lions have been 2 players away for 28 years.

We need coaches and players who take responibility for their actions without deciding they are so valuable they aren't being payed enough and want more money or to move on because they had a couple of good games last year. "hey I made the pro bowl last year" doesn't mean anything to me. How did you do this year?

Let's don't trade the entire future to win 5 more games next year. Is Quinn the solution? Well if we trade up for him he BY God Better Be or all wev' done is trade for something else to bitch about. It isn't likely he'll play 1st year anyway. easier to step right in at any other position.

1:10 PM  
Blogger The Niceness said...

Armando, I'm really not 100 percent in love with your tone right now.

1:26 PM  
Blogger The Dude said...

That's hilarious, Niceness.

The No. 9 pick is such a tricky place to be given all the needs the Fins have. I disagree with Anon about Quinn being another Harrington. Quinn is superior to Harrington in all the key aspects.

That said, again, I agree with Armando that Quinn won't be there at 9. The good thing is, unlike the last time we had a top 10 pick, this draft class seems to be deeper and richer in talent so we should be set with whomever we get. In my opinion, if we can't get Quinn, then we should take eiter a shut down CB like Derill Revis of Pitt or DT Amobi Okeye of Louisville.

2:11 PM  
Anonymous Patrick said...

We won't know about Quinn until the combine. If he scores well he will not last until 9. Armando is right the NFL is a QB league. Even if you don't need a guy and he is there the best value at the pick is the QB.

Look at how San Diego built their team. When Manning came out and said he wouldn't play for them they picked him anyway and look at the results.

Rights to 2004 4th Overall Pick - Used to sign Quarterback Philip Rivers.

2005 1st Round Draft Pick - Used to draft and sign Linebacker Shawne Merriman.

2004 3rd Round Draft Pick - Used to draft and sign Kicker Nate Kaeding.

2005 5th Round Draft Pick - Traded to Tampa Bay Buccaneers for Left Tackle Roman Oben.

Any questions?

3:19 PM  
Anonymous cookiestat13 said...

would any one trade for david car i like him with a good system i think he could be a good qb he is moble and could strech the field then go out and get a OT to protect him

6:12 PM  
Blogger Bloodlust said...

Joseph...
My friends live in Cleveland and are big Browns fans as well. The Love for Charlie Frye has dwindled over the last year, and the organization has stated, as the fans, that they are looking to replace Charlie. Everyone wants and needs that QB that will bring a spark of life to their offense. So, indeed the Browns will be going headstrong into finding another QB.

According to the people I know, the Browns are in the same situation we are, especially with their head coach.

As far as Quinn, instead of getting your hopes up, we should look who is out there that fills a specific spot. Lets get the best drafts we can, instead of walking away with one or two good picks.

Trades are made all the way up to regular season, perhaps we might have an opportunity then to get what we are looking for. When teams need positions filled, they make trades they normally wouldn't.

Its not always good to give up draft spots, unless we can get a QB that fits our needs. If worse come to worse, we will have to find our replacements through free agency or trades alone.

It sucks other teams have worse records that give them the top picks. That is how Dallas got Aikman and Smith, during their 2-14 season. I hope we do not have to get that bad to get quality individuals. So, I'll leave it to Mueller, and see if he is worth our trust.

6:40 PM  
Blogger NYdolfan84 said...

Two words: MATT LEINART

The Raiders, Lions, and Bills are among the teams that passed on him last year. He has a heisman and national titles. Quinn has a stronger arm, but many more doubts about his football IQ and ability to come through under pressure. I really think it's about even money that one of the top 2 QBs falls to #9. It all hinges on the Bucs. I could see them taking Quinn, but if Joe Thomas is available there is a good chance they grab him. Hell Calvin Johnson to me is the best player to come out of college in a few years, where does he fit in? If the Raiders take him, then one of the QBs is very likely to fall. The Bucs could also take him. The only team that would probably stay away from him is the Lions, because of all the money they have tied into the WR position. If the Dolphins trade up, I think they should take Johnson or Thomas. I wouldn't trade up for Quinn, I think he is a little riskier. That being said, if he is there at 9, he's worth the risk.

7:39 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Armando, a few points about the draft and Quinn being available.

Oakland needs a QB and will take Russell. Anyone who follows the draft closely would be apoplectic if this did not happen.

Detroit needs a QB but Mike Martz does not like "big name" guys. He likes guys who do what he tells them to do. besides, the Lions have bigger needs at DL.

Cleveland might need a QB. They also need the rest of a team, so Savage and Crennel might go shopping for that instead.

The Redskins don't need a QB. They drafted Jason Campbell two years ago and finally gave him the keys to the offense last year.

The Vikings don't need a QB. They drafted Tarvaris Jackson in the 2nd round last year and seem intent on giving him the chance to take over the job.

What you did not mention is that the Redskins have only 1 pick in the first 4 rounds this year and will more than likely be willing to trade back and acquire more picks to rebuild a desperately thin roster. That is the wild-card which cannot be accounted for and that is why Miami fans shouldn't expect to see Quinn in a Dolphins uniform next year.

11:15 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Armando wrote:
Did NE need to keep four of them in 2000? No, but they did and one of them was Tom Brady.

And let's not forget that two of the other three QBs were named Michael Bishop and john Friesz.

11:22 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Agreed....I hate the way Kiper's words are always written in stone...He is a good "relayer" of info, but leave it at that....He is wrong as much as he is right.

I think we should trade away #9 and get picks....Drop and take Ted Ginn or a Lamar Woodley and get an extra second or third rounder would make me very happy.

9:44 PM  
Anonymous Anthony said...

How do you know? You can say it won't if you are "are not up to speed" on the draft. Kiper thinks it will and he is up to speed on the draft. I am not getting my hopes up and I am not in love with Quinn after watching him against LSU, Roethlisberger and Marino both dropped. You contradict yourself in this whole article. Answer this question please, If believing Quinn will fall to to the phins is sheer lunacy, are you really saying that your good friend, Kiper, is a lunatic.

11:12 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Armando, this is totally off the subject but why dont you take over the questions and answers forum on the herald. Darlington hasn't answered anything since January 3rd. He obviously is too busy writing fluff for the paper to be bothered by us. It's really dissapointing because when Jason Cole was doing it he was on the ball. If you dont have time (to do it) could ya just smack Jeff around some for us?

12:16 PM  
Blogger NYdolfan84 said...

Armando:

What is your take on OT Levi Brown in the draft? Is he a good value there? It seems like he has more question marks than Joe Thomas. I heard Brown looked bad in the Senior Bowl practices, but I'm not sure if thats accurate or how he played in the game (which probably matters more) A lot of people here have been calling for a CB to be drafted, but I don't see any of them worthy of the 9th selection. Whats your take on that? I say if they move up, grab Calvin Johnson or Joe Thomas, maybe Quinn. If they stay at 9 see if Quinn falls. If he doesn't fall to nine. Trade down, and draft Levi Brown, Dwayne Jarrett (assuming Ginn is gone), Leon Hall (or another CB), or Amobi Okoye.

Is Amobi Okoye any relation to Christian Okoye "The Nigerian Nightmare"? Boy that guy was tough, it's too bad he couldn't stay healthy.

Also, Did anyone else catch the college QB skills competition they were running on ESPN last week? Stanton looked really good. He won almost every event. It was Stanton, Troy Smith, the QB from Boise St., and Chris Leak. I wonder if any of those 4 will pan out to be solid NFL QBs.

12:30 PM  
Anonymous Brian said...

If somehow Brady Quinn did fall to 9 I say trade the pick to get more. We have more holes to fill than draft picks.

2:36 PM  
Blogger Armando Salguero said...

Anthony, I'm not up to speed on the draft, but I am VERY up to speed on the NFL and how personnel people usually think. That is why I don't think Quinn will be there. I could be wrong, it wouldn't be the first time, but I just don't think he'll be there.

NYdolfan, you're asking me and I just got done telling everyone I'm not up to speed on the draft. So I know as much about Levi Jeans as Levi Brown. But I will ask scouts and see what they tell me.

Understand, guys, I'm not a draft expert. What I do is talk to the experts, compile that information, and let you guys know what the consensus is, assuming there is one.

3:21 PM  
Anonymous finndolphan said...

armando i've seen quinn play on several occasions and he is definitely something special!that being said ,i don't think the phins can afford to give up what it will take to move up to draft him!they simply have too many holes to fill!you are right in assuming there's no way in hell he will fall to no.9!so let's get over this fantasy!try and get someone else(shwab,leftwich,there will be many others out there come march)lets try and improve the talent level across the field because it's painfully obvious it's nowhere near good enough!

3:38 PM  
Blogger NYdolfan84 said...

The Niceness said...
Armando, I'm really not 100 percent in love with your tone right now.


Armando, I didn't know if you watched the Senior Bowl or not. Apparantly not. I didn't either. What other questions would we have other than draft and free agency? Our season has been virtually over since mid-October. This is a Dolphin's blog right?

3:54 PM  
Anonymous NYScott said...

nydolfan84, ask any other questions you want about the current team because that is what Armando covers. He has said plenty of times that he is not a draft guy.Why would people continue to ask him questions on something he has clearly stated he knows nothing about? Crazy right?

9:49 PM  
Blogger NYdolfan84 said...

Scott...If he has no knowledge of the draft, then how could he assure us that Quinn won't be there at 9. Crazy right? I didn't ask for a 40 time, I just wanted to know if he had heard anything on Brown. If he watched the Senior Bowl he would have had a little info on him. When your team has a bunch of holes you need to fill them through the draft and free agency. Crazy Right?

Thank you for your concern Scott and parroting back what Armando said. Real insightful.

9:58 AM  

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